16. Hydrogen Economy (Green Hydrogen

& Fuel Cells)

Purpose:

Utilize hydrogen as a versatile, clean energy carrier to decarbonize sectors that are hard to electrify, such as heavy industry (steel, chemicals), long-haul transport (trucks, ships, possibly aviation), and provide seasonal energy storage for power grids. The vision of a “hydrogen economy” involves producing hydrogen in a low-carbon way (ideally via electrolysis using renewable electricity – yielding green hydrogen), distributing it through pipelines or other means, and using it to power fuel cells or as feedstock in industrial processes. Hydrogen fuel cells can generate electricity on demand (in vehicles or power plants) with water as the only emission. The overall goal is to cut CO₂ emissions by replacing fossil fuels in critical applications with hydrogen-based solutions.

Current Stage:

Hydrogen today is mostly used in oil refining and fertilizer production and is made from natural gas (gray hydrogen), which emits CO₂. But investment in green hydrogen has surged. Electrolyzer technology (splitting water into H₂ and O₂) is improving and scaling up. As of 2023, several countries and blocs have set ambitious targets: for example, the EU’s REPowerEU plan aims for 10 million tonnes of domestic renewable hydrogen production and 10 million tonnes imports by 2030 weforum.org. That’s a massive ramp-up – essentially creating a new energy industry. Projects are underway: huge solar and wind-powered electrolyzer complexes in development in the Middle East (e.g., Neom’s $5bn green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia), Australia (Asian Renewable Energy Hub aiming to export hydrogen or ammonia), Chile, and parts of Europe (North Sea wind to H₂ hubs). Costs are high now (~$4-6 per kg H₂), but expected to drop below $2/kg with scale, which would make green H₂ competitive with fossil fuels in many uses.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are already on roads in small numbers (Toyota Mirai, Hyundai Nexo cars; some buses; fork lifts in warehouses). But battery EVs have taken the lead in passenger cars due to infrastructure and efficiency advantages. The likely near-term use of hydrogen in transport is more in heavy-duty or long-range scenarios: many prototypes of fuel cell trucks (Toyota, Hyundai, Nikola) and even trains (Alstom’s Coradia iLint hydrogen train operates in Germany). Japan is investing in fuel cell buses and backup power systems. Hydrogen can also be used in modified combustion engines or turbines for ships and power generation, though fuel cells are more efficient.

Industry: A major development is using hydrogen to make steel (Direct Reduced Iron with H₂ instead of coal) – pilot plants in Sweden (HYBRIT produced first batches of green steel) and plans in Germany and elsewhere. Fertilizer companies (e.g., Yara) are making green ammonia (which is made from green H₂) at demonstration scale iea.org. Green ammonia is also considered as a shipping fuel or for co-firing in power plants.

Infrastructure efforts: pipelines are being planned or repurposed to carry hydrogen blends. For example, Europe’s European Hydrogen Backbone proposes 11,600 km of H₂ pipelines by 2030 weforum.org, connecting supply (like North Africa solar H₂) to demand centers weforum.org. Oman is building a 1000km hydrogen pipeline to export from its southern desert to the north coast (for shipping) weforum.org. These are big capital projects likely to realize in the late 2020s.

Key Players:

Countries with hydrogen strategies include virtually all major economies now: the EU (especially Germany, France, Spain) heavily funding it weforum.org; Japan was early with a hydrogen society vision; South Korea has targets for fuel cell vehicles and power generation; Australia and Chile see export opportunities; Middle East (Saudi, UAE) investing to leverage renewables for H₂ instead of oil long-term. China is also in the mix with many demo projects and could scale quickly given its renewable build-out.

Corporate: Electrolyzer manufacturers (Nel Hydrogen, ITM Power, Thyssenkrupp, Chinese companies like LONGi entering electrolyzers). Industrial gas giants (Air Liquide, Linde) are deeply involved in hydrogen handling and projects. Automakers: Toyota, Hyundai champion fuel cell vehicles; some others (Daimler with trucks, Honda historically with small FC car programs). Energy majors (Shell, BP) are investing in hydrogen infrastructure and production, seeing it as an extension of their business model in a clean way.

Potential Impact:

If realized, the hydrogen economy would be a cornerstone of a net-zero emissions world. It provides a solution for the ~25% of global CO₂ emissions from heavy industry and long-distance transport that are hard to directly electrify. For example, steelmaking with green hydrogen could eliminate the ~8% of global emissions that come from steel production using coal. Fertilizer production (ammonia) would no longer emit CO₂ or be reliant on natural gas – improving food security and sustainability.

In energy, hydrogen and derived fuels (like ammonia or synthetic hydrocarbons) offer long-term storage and transport of renewable energy. Excess solar in one region can produce hydrogen that is stored or shipped to another (like how Europe plans to import from sunny regions) weforum.org. This helps address the mismatch of renewable resource location vs demand centers. Also seasonal storage: store summer solar as hydrogen, use in winter. That can complement batteries which are more for daily cycling.

For consumers, if hydrogen scales, we might see more fuel cell vehicles in niches like trucking fleets or perhaps as range-extenders for electric trucks (some designs use small fuel cells to charge onboard batteries). In cities, fuel cell buses and trains mean zero tailpipe emissions and quieter operation. Fuel cells in buildings could provide combined heat and power efficiently.

One exciting aspect is energy security and diversification: countries currently importing fossil fuels could produce hydrogen domestically from renewables (if they have wind/solar potential) or diversify supply by importing from multiple stable partners (sun-belt countries) instead of being tied to pipeline gas from one region. This has geopolitical effects – new trade routes (like shipping ammonia across oceans) and possibly reduced petrostates influence replaced by “electrostates” or “hydrostates”.

Environmentally, hydrogen use emits only water. If done correctly (green hydrogen), it massively cuts air pollution too (no SOx/NOx from ships if ammonia is used, etc.). However, there are caveats: hydrogen can leak and in the atmosphere it’s an indirect greenhouse gas (extends lifetime of methane), so infrastructure must minimize leaks. There’s also efficiency loss – making hydrogen from electricity and then using it is less efficient than using electricity directly, so prioritizing hydrogen for sectors that truly need it is important to avoid waste.

Economically, building the hydrogen economy will require trillions in investment (electrolyzers, renewables, pipelines, fueling stations, new industrial equipment). But it also creates industries and jobs – e.g. manufacturing electrolyzers or fuel cells could be big business (like solar panel manufacturing scaled up). Regions with strong renewables could profit by exporting energy in hydrogen form.

The commitment by governments implies hydrogen will become significant. By 2035, we might see hydrogen meeting, say, 5-10% of final energy in advanced economies (up from near zero now) – powering fleets of tens of thousands of trucks, contributing to steel mills that churn out green steel for construction, fueling some power turbines in grid backup, and more. A person in 2035 could fly on a plane partially fueled by hydrogen-derived synthetic fuel, ride in a train powered by hydrogen, and live in a city with industrial plants using H₂ instead of coal – all resulting in cleaner air and a cooler planet.

In short, hydrogen bridges gaps where electrification is tough, making deep decarbonization feasible across the entire energy system weforum.org. It’s not visible to everyday consumers as much as EVs or solar panels, but in the background it can fundamentally change heavy industries and long-range energy transport, significantly changing humanity’s energy landscape toward sustainability.